Oil prices flip-flop and US stocks drift as Wall Street waits for Iran's reaction to US strikes

NEW YORK (AP) — The United States' bunker-busting entry into Israel's war with Iran is having only a modest effect on the price of oil and stock markets worldwide Monday, at least for now. The hope is that Iran won't retaliate in a way that disrupts the global flow of crude, which would hurt economies worldwide but also its own.

The S&P 500 was edging down by 0.1% in early trading, coming off a week where stock prices had jumped up and down on worries about the conflict potentially escalating. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 37 points, or 0.1%, as of 9:35 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.4% lower.

The price of oil did jump 4% shortly after trading began on Sunday night, but it quickly pared back as the focus shifted from what the U.S. military did to how Iran would react.

By Monday morning, the price of a benchmark barrel of U.S. oil was up 0.4% at $74.16 after briefly dipping to a loss. Brent crude, the international standard, edged up by 0.2% to $77.17 per barrel. They still remain higher than they were before the fighting began a little more than a week ago, when a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude was close to $68.

The fear is that a worsening war could squeeze the world’s supply of oil, which would pump up prices for it, gasoline and other products refined from crude. Not only is Iran a major producer of crude, it could also try to block access to the Strait of Hormuz off its coast. Much of the world’s oil passes through the strait each day on ships.

The calming in the oil market came as several analysts said Iran would likely refrain from closing the waterway. Iran itself uses the strait to move its own crude, mostly to China, and it needs the revenue made from such sales of oil.

“It’s a scorched earth possibility, a Sherman-burning-Atlanta move,” said Tom Kloza, chief market analyst at Turner Mason & Co. “It’s not probable.”

Neil Newman, managing director of Atris Advisory Japan, said hope remains that the Israel-Iran war could be a short conflict, with the thinking being “the one big hit by the Americans will be effective and then we’ll get back to sort of business as usual, in which case there is no need for an immediate, panicky type of reaction.”

Speaking to Fox News on Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a disruption to traffic through the strait by Iran would be “economic suicide” and would elicit a U.S. response.

When asked about that at a routine briefing in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun told reporters that “China is willing to strengthen communication with Iran and relevant parties to continue playing a constructive role in promoting de-escalation” of the conflict.

“The Persian Gulf and its adjacent waters are important international channels for cargo and energy trade. Maintaining security and stability in this region serves the common interests of the international community,” he said.

Of course, not everyone is sure about Iran’s next move.

Andy Lipow, a Houston analyst covering oil markets for 45 years, said countries are not always rational actors and that he wouldn’t be surprised if Tehran lashed out for political or emotional reasons.

“If the Strait of Hormuz was completely shut down, oil prices would rise to $120 to $130 a barrel,” said Lipow, predicting that that would translate to about $4.50 a gallon at the pump and hurt consumers in other ways.

“It would mean higher prices for all those goods transported by truck, and it would be more difficult for the Fed to lower interest rates.”

The Federal Reserve has been hesitant to lower interest rates, and it's been on hold this year after cutting at the end of last year, because it's waiting to see how much President Donald Trump's tariffs will hurt the economy and raise inflation.

Inflation has remained relatively tame recently, and it's near the Fed's target of 2%. A continued rise in oil and gasoline prices would put upward pressure on inflation. That in turn could keep the Fed on hold because cuts to rates can fan inflation higher, along with giving the economy a boost.

In the bond market, Treasury yields eased a little as hopes continue that the Fed may cut interest rates later this year.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.34% from 4.38% late Friday. The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for the Fed, fell more modestly to 3.89% from 3.90%.

In stock markets abroad, indexes fell modestly across Europe after finishing mixed in Asia. France’s CAC 40 fell 1%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.7% for two of the world’s bigger moves.

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Kurtenbach contributed from Bangkok. AP video journalist Mayuko Ono in Tokyo contributed.